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Retail Predictions | The Uncomfortable Truths Shaping Retail in 2026
2025 taught retailers that the old playbook isn't working. Historical data can't keep pace with how fast preferences shift. Internal alignment is harder than ever, and consumers have developed a sharp instinct for which brands actually get them—and which are just going through the motions.
The retailers that win in 2026 won't be the ones with the most AI or the biggest tech budgets. They'll be the ones willing to confront what's actually broken and do the hard work to fix it.
"Retail winners in 2026 won’t be the most “AI-branded”—they’ll be the most honest: confronting broken assumptions, aligning teams, and using real customer insight to make fast, brave decisions."— Viki Zabala, Chief Strategy & Growth Officer, First Insight
Here are three predictions for the year ahead:
1. Synthetic personas will be 2026's most expensive shortcut
The rush toward AI-generated "customers" will lead many retailers astray. Synthetic data is fast and cheap, but it's a mirror reflecting internal assumptions—not a window into real demand. That distinction matters, as 69% of consumers say they would trust a brand less if it relied on synthetic personas instead of real customer feedback. Retailers who mistake algorithmic confidence for customer insight will make bold bets based on what AI thinks shoppers might say, then face markdowns when reality doesn't match. The winners will be the ones who actually listen to real humans.
2. The hardest part of AI transformation won't be the technology—it will be the people
Every retailer is racing to consolidate tools and compress timelines with AI. But the real challenge isn't implementation—it's change management. Breaking down silos between teams that have operated independently for decades. Retraining people who are far more capable than their job descriptions suggest. Getting organizations to think differently about how work flows from insight to shelf. The technology is ready. The question is whether leadership can move their culture fast enough to use it.
3. Consumers know real from fake—and they're done being sold to
The bifurcation in retail isn't just about price. Some brands are gaining ground across income levels while others struggle—not because one is cheaper, but because of how the relationship feels. In fact, 91% of consumers say authentic human interaction is an important part of their relationship with a brand. Shoppers sense authenticity. They know when a brand actually understands them versus when they're being marketed at. The retailers who build genuine emotional connection will earn loyalty. The ones still optimizing campaigns will wonder where everyone went.
The through-line here is simple: shortcuts won't work. Not with AI, not with your org, not with your customers. The brands that do the real work—listening to actual people, investing in their teams, building relationships that feel human—will be the ones still standing when the dust settles.
Read on Retail Today.
